[Reading-hall-of-fame] Needed: a "no spin" factor

[tsticht at znet.com]

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Reading TODAY

Needed: A "No Spin" Factor

The headline on the front page of Reading TODAY for August/September 2005
states in big, bold letters: LONG-TERM NAEP SCORES SHOW SOLID GAINS. But
the graph on page 6 suggests a bit of "spin" being given to NAEP data.
There are no indications of "solid gains" in the graph of average scores on
the NAEP for 9, 13, or 17 year olds for the thirty year period from 1971 to
2004. In a scale ranging from 200 to around 320 scale scores, 9 year olds
increased from 208 in 1971 to 215 in 1980 and then fell to 209 in 1990 and
then rose again to 219 in 2004. This is only 4 scale score points higher
than in 1980.  This is not evidence of "solid gains" but of ups and downs
over a thirty year period. There is a similar lack of evidence of any
"solid gains" for 13 and 17 year olds over this period.

The lack of evidence for gains by 9 year olds is made even more apparent,
and disappointing,  when the data for 9 year olds at differing percentiles
of achievement are examined. In 1971 students at the 90th percentile scored
260, then rose gradually to 266 in 1990 and then fell to 264 in 2004. Nine
year olds at the 50th percentile scored as indicated above. Really poorly
reading students, those at the 10th percentile scored 152 in 1971, then
rose to 165 in 1980 and then rose again to 169 in 2004, though the latter
was not statistically greater than 25 years ago in 1980.

Thirteen year olds  at the 10th percentile scored 208 in 1971, rose to 213
in 1988, and then fell to 210 in 2004. The least able 17 year old readers,
those at the 10th percentile, scored 225 in 1971, rose to 241 in 1988, and
then fell to 227 in 2004.

Altogether, data for the last 25 to 30 years indicate that these poorly
reading students have made hardly any change, and certainly not any "solid
gain" that has any practical meaning. This suggests to me that reading
professionals, researchers, and policymakers need to take another look at
what is being done to try to increase reading scores of the weakest readers
in the nation. Strategies of the last thirty years have apparently failed
for these students, that’s the "no spin" finding.

Thomas G. Sticht
International Consultant in Adult Education
2062 Valley View Blvd.
El Cajon, CA 92019-2059
Tel/fax: (619) 444-9133
Email: tsticht at aznet.net