[Maths-Education] FW: How 'bout them numbers, Pat? <fwd>

Mon, 10 Apr 2000 17:16:16 +0100

Hi Everyone,
	I thought you might enjoy the following message.

Regards

Declan

>-----Original Message-----
>From:	Bill Tupman [SMTP:W.A.Tupman@exeter.ac.uk]
>Sent:	Monday, April 10, 2000 11:03 AM

>
>For all you fundies out there.
>
>> > > Do Unnatural Acts Cause Natural Disasters?
>> > >
>> > > Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian
>> > > Coalition, recently warned Orlando,
>> > > Florida, that it was courting natural
>> > > disaster by allowing gay pride flags to
>> > > be flown along its streets.
>> > >
>> > > "A condition like this will bring about ...
>> > > earthquakes, tornadoes, and possibly a meteor,"
>> > > Robertson said.
>> > >
>> > > Apparently he was referring to his belief
>> > > that the presence of openly gay people incurs
>> > > divine wrath and that God acts through geological
>> > > and meteorological events to destroy municipalities
>> > > that permit gay people the same civil liberties
>> > > as others.  (Robertson also warned Orlando about
>> > > terrorist bombs, suggesting the possibility that
>> > > God may also employ terrorists.)
>> > >
>> > > Before Pat and his Christian cronies get
>> > > too carried away promulgating the idea
>> > > that natural disasters are prompted by
>> > > people who displease God, they should
>> > > take a hard look at the data.
>> > >
>> > > Take tornadoes. Every state (except
>> > > Alaska) has them-some only one or two a
>> > > year, dozens in others.
>> > >
>> > > Gay people are in every state (even Alaska).
>> > > According to Pat's hypothesis, there should be
>> > > more gay people in states that have more
>> > > tornadoes.  But are there?  Nope.  In fact,
>> > > there's no correlation at all between the
>> > > number of gay folks (as estimated by the number
>> > > of gay  political organizations, support groups,
>> > > bookstores, radio programs, and circuit parties)
>> > > and the annual tornado count (r) = .04, p = .78
>> > > for you statisticians).
>> > >
>> > > So much for the "God hates gays" theory.
>> > > God seems almost neutral on the subject of
>> > > sexual orientation.  I say "almost" because
>> > > if we look at the density of gay groups relative
>> > > to the population as a whole, there is a small
>> > > but statistically significant (p .05) correlation
>> > > with the occurrence of tornadoes.  And it's a
>> > > negative correlation (r) = -.28).
>> > >
>> > > For those of you who haven't used statistics
>> > > since 1973, that means that a high concentration
>> > > of gay organizations actually protects against
>> > > tornadoes.  A state with the population of, say,
>> > > Alabama could avert two tornadoes a year merely
>> > > by doubling the number of gay organizations in
>> > > the state.  (Tough choice for Alabama's civil
>> > > defense strategists.)
>> > >
>> > > Although God may not care about sexual
>> > > orientation, the same cannot be said for
>> > > religious affiliation.  If the underlying
>> > > tenet of Pat's postulate is true-that God
>> > > wipes out offensive folks via natural disasters
>> > > then perhaps we can find some evidence of
>> > > who's on God's hit list.
>> > >
>> > > Jews are off the hook here: there's no
>> > > correlation between numbers of Jews and
>> > > frequency of tornadoes.  Ditto for Catholics.
>> > > But when it comes to Protestants, there's a
>> > > highly significant correlation of .71.
>> > >
>> > > This means that fully half the state-to-state
>> > > variation in tornado frequency can be accounted
>> > > for by the presence of Protestants.  And the
>> > > chance that this association is merely
>> > > coincidental is only one in 10,000.
>> > >
>> > > Protestants, of course, come in many flavors-
>> > > we were able to find statistics for Lutherans,
>> > > Methodists, Baptists, and Others.  Lutherans
>> > > don't seem to be a problem-no correlation with
>> > > tornadoes.  There's a modest correlation
>> > > (r) = .52, p = .0001) between Methodists and
>> > > tornadoes.
>> > >
>> > > But Baptists and Others share the prize:
>> > > both groups show a definite correlation
>> > > with tornado frequency (r) = .68, p = .0001).
>> > > This means that Texas could cut its average
>> > > of 139 tornadoes per year in half by sending
>> > > a few hundred thousand Baptists elsewhere
>> > > (Alaska maybe?).
>> > >
>> > > What, you are probably asking yourself, about
>> > > gay Protestants?  An examination of the numbers
>> > > of gay religious groups (mostly Protestant)
>> > > reveals no significant relationship with
>> > > tornadoes.  Perhaps even Protestants are less
>> > > repugnant to God if they're gay.
>> > >
>> > > And that brings up another point - the futility
>> > > of trying to save the world by getting gay people
>> > > to accept Jesus.  It looks from our numbers as
>> > > if the frequency of natural disasters might be
>> > > more effectively reduced by encouraging
>> > > Protestants to be gay.
>> > >
>> > > Gay people have been falsely blamed for
>> > > disasters ever since Sodom was destroyed by
>> > > fire and brimstone.  (We have been unable to
>> > > find any statistics on disasters involving
>> > > brimstone).  According to a reliable source,
>> > > the destruction of Sodom was indeed an act of
>> > > God.  (see Genesis 19:13)  It s destruction was
>> > > perpetrated because the citizens thereof were,
>> > > according to the same source (see Ezekiel 16:49-50)
>> > > "arrogant, overfed and unconcerned [and] did not
>> > > help the poor and needy" - not because they were
>> > > gay.
>> > >
>> > > Now Pat would have us believe that gays are the
>> > > cause of tornadoes (as well as earthquakes,
>> > > meteors, and even terrorist bombs) in utter
>> > > disregard for evidence showing that Baptists
>> > > are much more likely to cause them.
>> > >
>> > > I say "Kudos!" to Orlando. Despite Robertson's
>> > > warning that Orlando is "right in the way of
>> > > some serious hurricanes" (hardly a revelation),
>> > > note that it was not struck by the very
>> > > destructive Hurricane Andrew a few years ago.
>> > > And amid the recent conflagrations (that's fires)
>> > > in central Florida, which occurred just after
>> > > Pat sounded his alarm, Orlando was spared.
>> > > Keep those flags waving!
>> > >
>> > > As any statistician will tell you, of course,
>> > > correlation doesn't prove causation.
>> > > Protestants causing tornadoes by angering
>> > > God isn't the only explanation for these data.
>> > > It could be that Baptists and Other Protestants
>> > > purposely flock to states that have lots of
>> > > tornadoes (no, we haven't checked for a
>> > > correlation between IQ and religious affiliation).
>> > >
>> > > But if Pat and his Christian crew insist that
>> > > natural disasters are brought on by people who
>> > > offend God, let the data show who those people are.
>> > >
>> > > Janis Walworth July 16, 1998
>> > > Sources:
>> > > Tornado Occurrence by State, 1962-1991
>> > > 1990 Churches and Church Membership;
>> > > Population by State, 1990 US Census;
>> > > Gay & Lesbian Political Organizations,
>> > > Support Groups, and Religious Groups
>> > > from Gayellow Pages, National Edition, 1987.
>> > >
>> > > Permission is given to all to reprint this article
>> > > in its entirety on a not-for-profit basis.
>> >
>> >
>
>--- End Forwarded Message ---
>
>
>----------------------
>Bill Tupman
>Department of Politics
>Amory Building
>University of Exeter
>Exeter
>EX4 4RJ
>
>http://www.ex.ac.uk/politics/pol_data/undergrad/Websites.html
>Phone ++44 {0} 1392 263169
>Fax ++44 [0] 1392 263305
>United Kingdom
>

Dr. Declan O'Reilly
Department of Educational Studies,
University of Sheffield,
388 Glossop Road,
Sheffield S10 2JA

(0114)  22 28140

Fax (0114)  279 6236